The Ultimate Test for the Baseball Gods

Last month, I wrote a two-part blog called "A Dissertation on the Deities of the Diamond" about how fans tend to believe that they somehow control the fate of their favorite ballclub through their superstitious actions.

I realize how silly it is for a grown person to believe that wearing a baseball cap backwards will make a .188 hitter come up big with a rally-tying single in the bottom of the ninth, but this is the society we live in.

Then again, sometimes the numbers don't lie. Some fans actually could make a statistical argument that backs up such wild claims. Like me.

I have attended three home games this season of the struggling Arizona Diamondbacks, a team that trails the Los Angeles Dodgers by almost 20 games with an unimpressive 43-56 record.

Yet, during the three games I attended the Diamondbacks were 3-0, outscoring the Rockies 2 to 0, the Cubs 10 to 0 and the Giants 2 to 1. A team that has struggled with pitching and hitting mightily all throughout the year just so happens to boast a 14 to 1 scoring margin in the three games I have attended.

Coincidence? Not bloody likely.

Consider this fact. The Diamondbacks have only pitched eight shutouts all year long (and five at home) and I was there for two of them. During the third game I attended, the Diamondbacks were up 2 to 0 with two outs and two strikes in the ninth inning when I foolishly uttered aloud: “I can’t believe they’ve pitched 26 straight scoreless innings for me and are about to finish number 27! What are the freakin' odds of that?”

The Giants ended up scoring a run on a wild pitch as the Baseball Gods smote me mightily.

Still, the team has a cumulative ERA of 4.41, but when I watch them at Chase Field live they have an ERA of 0.00 in 27 innings (the one run the Giants did score was unearned).

Considering how bad the D-Backs have been, it is an extremely odd coincidence that they pitch like the Arizona Cy Youngs whenever I'm there.

Of course, every fan has told me that I should attend every game, but I know that this will enrage the Baseball Gods if I try to take advantage of their divine courtesy. Thus, I haven't been to a game since mid-June. However, I decided it had been long enough so I will be there tonight when the team hosts the Philadelphia Phillies.

Now, whether or not the Baseball Gods favor me will be put to the ultimate test. After all, the D-Backs have Garland on the mound (his ERA is 4.41!) and the Phillies have the best offense in the National League. The team has hit 138 homes runs and has scored 527 runs (leading the National League in both categories).

If the D-Backs somehow miraculously prevail AND keep the Phillies from scoring, then I will officially believe that I am favored by the Baseball Gods.

However, I have more than my share of doubts.

The Phillies have been extremely hot lately, winning 17 of 20 games and haven't lost a series since the start of the month. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the league. There is no way the D-Backs stand a chance, right?

Well, we'll find out tonight.

A Dissertation on the Deities of the Diamond #2

Part Two

(See previous blog entry for Part One.)

Just to show you how extremely odd it is that the Diamondbacks kick ass and take names so ferociously whenever I spectate live, consider some of the following harrowing statistics from the team’s first 61 games (or, approximately one-third of the regular season).

There are only two .300 batters on the team. Justin Upton is having a breakout year hitting (.317) and utility player Ryan Roberts is solid with a .313 average, but he has only had 80 at bats. So, it’s highly likely he won’t last the whole season batting at that level. That means one All-Star caliber hitter. One.

Now, let me show you some of the other anemic averages from the team:

Conor Jackson .182
Chris Young .184
Chad Tracy .203
Eric Byrnes .215
Chris Snyder .223

All men have started for the team numerous times this year, incidentally.

On the plus side, Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds are clearing the fences consistently, having hit 12 and 15 home runs respectively. That’s quite impressive, but also inadvertently depressing. That means the pair have hit 27 of the team’s 58 homers. The rest of the entire team has only hit a meager 31. Contrast that to, say, the Philadelphia Phillies who have almost three times that number and you can see that Arizona won't be winning too many games with their bats.

Now, let’s discuss the pitching side of the equation. Dan Haren has been the main man this year, throwing for 85 innings over 12 games with an astounding ERA of 2.33! He has 83 strikeouts and only eleven walks. Unfortunately, a lack of run support on the days he starts has lead to a 4-4 record, which is so much less than he deserves.

Unfortunately, the Earned Run Averages just climb higher and higher as you scrutinize the rest of the team. Brandon Webb boasts the worst at 21.60! In his defense, he played injured early on and is still recovering. Not too far above him are Tom Gordon and Bobby Korecky, each with a whopping 13.50!

Of course, I realize every team has one or two bad apples with horrendous ERAs early in the year, but consider that the team has eight additional pitchers with an ERA over 5.0 and you can start understanding why Arizona is not winning too many games on the mound, either. They should feel fortunate to be winning 43% of the time.

Naturally, that means that 57% of the time, the D-Backs lose. Unfortunately, they are prone to losing by a massive margin. The team has given up five or more runs 30 times this year (out of 61 games). That’s almost exactly half the time! Not only does the team seem allergic to scoring runs, they appear philosophically opposed to preventing the other team from scoring often.

Yet, when I watch the Diamondbacks live, they have outscored their opponents 14 to 1 in three games!

More importantly, during the first 26 2/3 (of 27 innings) of those games, the visitors scored zilch. It wasn’t until the Giants had two outs and two strikes in the ninth that a player scored from third thanks to Chad Qualls’ wild pitch. So, the run WASN’T EVEN EARNED!

On top of that, it’s my own damn fault because I kept saying “I can’t believe they’ve pitched 26 straight scoreless innings for me and are about to finish number 27! What are the freakin' odds of that?”

The Baseball Gods overheard this and smote me heartily.

Despite my momentary lapse of reason, let’s break down the facts. Three games. No earned runs. Three wins. Inexplicably, they have played like a veritable Diamond Dynasty whenever I am in the stands.

One last note: I have even watched three different pitchers with a combined W-L record of 9-15 during those games. And, that record would drop to 6-15 if you didn’t count the three victories that occurred in my presence.

It is absolutely mind-boggling that the D-Backs can play so much above their potential when I just so happen to be there. How can I not accept this as irrefutable proof that the Baseball Gods exist? How can I not whole-heartedly believe that I completely control the destiny of the Arizona Diamondbacks (but only about once a month)?

Hmmmm.

Perhaps I should reconsider buying season tickets to explore this theory further.

Of course, there is always the danger of buying too many carrots (see previous entry). Surely, I would eventually anger the Deities of the Diamond with my greediness and then I'd have to resort to wearing my hat backwards and upside down, which only works when I watch every other pitch and shout "O' Mighty Baseball Gods Be Praised!" in-between.